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FUTURE TENSE for Tuesday, March 30, 2004
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STUDY: DOWNLOADING DIGITAL MUSIC HAS MINIMAL EFFECT ON SALES OF CDs
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File sharing may not be responsible for declining CD sales.
Researchers at Harvard Business School and the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill say they've found that sharing of digital music files on peer-to-peer networks like KaZaA has only a minor effect on the sales of compact discs.
The report counters the music industry's central theme in its war on digital piracy. The music industry has blamed file sharing for a prolonged decline in CD sales.
The report says that file sharing actually appears to boost by a small amount the sales of popular albums by the likes of Britney Spears a little, while slightly depressing the sales of CDs from lesser-known artists.
Harvard associate professor Felix Oberholzer-Gee says the study compared actual downloads of music files to store sales of CDs during the latter part of 2002. He says people who shared files likely would not have bought the albums that they downloaded.
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OBERHOLZER-GEE: Most of what we know about the effect of file sharing on CD sales comes from surveys. You would ask people, "Do you download music?" Then you would ask whether or not downloading music has changed behavior. The problem with all these surveys, in particular after people realized file sharing was illegal, is that you couldn't be too sure whether everybody is willing to reveal what they do and what they think. The study we did is unique in that we have log files from servers that facilitate downloading. And so we can actually see what people download and we can see if albums that are downloaded more often -- whether their sales change in any way in response to downloading.
GORDON: What do you find in that regard?
OBERHOLZER-GEE: The average effect of file sharing on sales is pretty much zero. We cannot find a negative impact. We have a number of statistical models, and even if we take the most pessimistic one, the negative effect that we find is so small that the big drop in sales in the 2000 to 2002 period cannot be explained by file sharing.
GORDON: It's such a tempting connection to make, and one that the recording industry has wanted us to make. Even though CD sales are dramatically down while downloading is dramatically up, there's no connection?
OBERHOLZER-GEE: To make the argument ring true what you would have to see is that the types of music that are shared most often are the types of music that lose the most sales. This is not what we see in the data.
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The Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA), the trade group representing the music industry, denounced the report's conclusions. It released the following statement: "Countless well-respected groups and analysts, including Edison Research, Forrester, the University of Texas, among others, have all determined that illegal file sharing has adversely impacted the sales of CDs."
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TECH NEWS DAILY 3
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1. Good Riddance, Gigahertz
http://mail.publicradio.org/site/R?i=RfUujEdcy49p-GW9jh2-kg..
2. AT&T Brings Internet Telephone Service to New Jersey
http://mail.publicradio.org/site/R?i=SK_8MQ4aELBp-GW9jh2-kg..
3. New Wave of Web Ads on the Way
http://mail.publicradio.org/site/R?i=lpmGhnK0XVdp-GW9jh2-kg..
Until tomorrow,
Jon Gordon
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[ Actually, the Edison Report was not very strong in supporting the record company's standpoint... change or die; change or die...]
(hris
